Putin’s War
“One should never discount the historical importance of lunatics.” Marci Shore, Historian
There’s a vendor at the store where I work part-time, a woman in her mid-40’s, who was born in Ukraine and lived there until about twenty-five years ago when she came to America. Her father, brother, and cousins still live in Ukraine. We’ve spoken a few times about Russia-Ukraine relations, and in the early days of Putin’s military build-up she was convinced the West was overreacting and that Putin was just being Putin, rattling his weapons in order to remind the world of Russia’s potency. I saw her on the sixth day of the Russian invasion and asked after her family. With a hint of reluctance she showed me some photos and a video her father sent her. It was horrific. Dead bodies in the snow, the blackened frames of burned-out trucks, demolished buildings. She looked weary, obviously under the weight of worry and circumstances she had no power to change.
I found myself with nothing useful to say, no words of condolence, hope or comfort. Everything that came to mind sounded hollow in my head. I can imagine what she’s feeling, but I’m not clinging to the bar of uncertainty as she is. Putin has the war he wanted, for reasons of his own, which could easily spiral out of control. Geopolitics are complex, unpredictable. On an intellectual level, from the safe distance of several thousand miles, I understand this, but looking at this woman’s face brought the reality of Putin’s invasion much closer. By some estimates I’ve read the refugee count is already up to a million, a staggering number.
Is it certain that Putin will act rationally and restrain from using nuclear weapons? We don’t know. It’s a scary possibility to contemplate. Until Russian mothers begin feeling the pain of dead sons returning home in body bags, the Russian public might continue to believe Putin’s lies and propaganda and bizarre justification for this act of aggression. But body bags and material deprivation brought about by punishing economic sanctions will focus the public’s attention. Putin isn’t yet paying any cost or feeling discomfort for launching this invasion, but even a dictator as isolated and insulated as Putin isn’t immune to the consequences of war.
Autocrats rarely relinquish power voluntarily, and the longer their rule, the harder it is for them to let go.
